Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.9% | 80.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.2% | 65.8% | +3.6 | ✗ (23.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -20 (105-125). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 33 | 5-9 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler III * | 29 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 10-11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Jae Crowder * | 29 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 22 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 23 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 9-10 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 23 | 8-11 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 20 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 12 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Solomon Hill | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić * | 34 | 7-16 | 1-5 | 4-6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Paul Millsap * | 28 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Torrey Craig * | 28 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Monté Morris * | 28 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 7-8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 24 | 4-11 | 2-8 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Jerami Grant | 26 | 7-14 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Troy Daniels | 19 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Mason Plumlee | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| PJ Dozier | 16 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Bol Bol | 11 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Noah Vonleh | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Keita Bates-Diop | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter