Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.8% | 82.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.3% | 55.7% | +1.3 | ✓ (12.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 74.3% | 25.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.5% | 30.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.5% | 30.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.9% | 40.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +14 (109-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Brown * | 36 | 6-16 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Wesley Matthews * | 31 | 2-11 | 1-5 | 4-5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Robin Lopez * | 31 | 4-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Pat Connaughton * | 29 | 2-7 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Thanasis Antetokounmpo * | 19 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 3-6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Frank Mason | 29 | 4-12 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Kyle Korver | 24 | 8-15 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | - | - | |
| D.J. Wilson | 21 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Ersan Ilyasova | 16 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray * | 38 | 9-17 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Will Barton * | 32 | 5-11 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | - | - | |
| Gary Harris * | 32 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jokic * | 29 | 4-13 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Paul Millsap * | 20 | 8-15 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Jerami Grant | 29 | 6-13 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Monte Morris | 23 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - | - | |
| Mason Plumlee | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Torrey Craig | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Troy Daniels | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Noah Vonleh | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| PJ Dozier | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter