Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | New Orleans Pelicans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.8% | 40.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 58.6% | 41.4% | -1.9 | ✗ (7.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 63.4% | 36.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: New Orleans Pelicans +6 (110-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 39 | 8-14 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler III * | 37 | 8-17 | 0-0 | 12-14 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 23 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 1-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 17 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 26 | 5-15 | 0-5 | 5-7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 24 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | - | - | |
| Solomon Hill | 14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Jae Crowder | 10 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday * | 37 | 7-13 | 3-5 | 3-6 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Lonzo Ball * | 35 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Zion Williamson * | 32 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 | - | - | |
| Brandon Ingram * | 30 | 4-20 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Derrick Favors * | 25 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Josh Hart | 27 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Nicolo Melli | 23 | 2-9 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Frank Jackson | 16 | 1-7 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| E'Twaun Moore | 11 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - |
* = starter