Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.3% | 47.7% | -0.5 | ✗ (16.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 73.3% | 26.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.7% | 29.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.7% | 29.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat +16 (105-89). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 30 | 6-18 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 28 | 8-16 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | - | - | |
| Khris Middleton * | 27 | 4-16 | 2-10 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Wesley Matthews * | 26 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Eric Bledsoe * | 21 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 26 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| George Hill | 24 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Pat Connaughton | 17 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Marvin Williams | 15 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Ersan Ilyasova | 14 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| D.J. Wilson | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Sterling Brown | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 5-16 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 7-14 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 33 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 33 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 17 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jae Crowder | 29 | 6-10 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 29 | 5-15 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 12 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 10 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Solomon Hill | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter