Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Cleveland Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.2% | 71.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.5% | 52.5% | +0.6 | ✓ (5.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 63.5% | 36.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 84.5% | 15.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.7% | 21.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.8% | 21.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 68.1% | 31.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cleveland Cavaliers +6 (125-119). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 40 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 36 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 37 | 5-14 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 36 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 14 | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 34 | 9-18 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 11 | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 14 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - | |
| Jae Crowder | 38 | 5-14 | 4-12 | 2-5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 14 | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 34 | 7-16 | 2-7 | 6-7 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 16 | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 16 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | - | |
| Chris Silva | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | - |
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland * | 39 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 17 | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 37 | 4-13 | 2-8 | 7-8 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 24 | - | |
| Collin Sexton * | 27 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 8 | - | |
| Cedi Osman * | 24 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | - | |
| Andre Drummond * | 23 | 5-13 | 2-4 | 1-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | - | |
| Kevin Porter Jr. | 40 | 9-18 | 4-7 | 8-10 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 26 | - | |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 31 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 17 | - | |
| Tristan Thompson | 29 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 4-7 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 16 | - | |
| Dante Exum | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter