Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Golden State Warriors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.6% | 72.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.5% | 59.5% | +2.1 | ✗ (14.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 64.1% | 35.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 85.4% | 14.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 77.9% | 22.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 77.9% | 22.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Golden State Warriors -12 (101-113). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 36 | 6-14 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler III * | 33 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 26 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 23 | 2-13 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 19 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jae Crowder | 31 | 6-11 | 4-8 | 5-5 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 29 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 20 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 16 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 34 | 6-14 | 2-7 | 4-6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Draymond Green * | 31 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Damion Lee * | 30 | 7-12 | 5-7 | 7-7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| Marquese Chriss * | 26 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 7-9 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Ky Bowman * | 15 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jordan Poole | 30 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 6-6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Eric Paschall | 16 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Kevon Looney | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | 13 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Zach Norvell Jr. | 10 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jeremy Pargo | 9 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Alen Smailagic | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter