Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Sacramento Kings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | β |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | β |
| Margin | 58.6% | 41.4% | -1.9 | β (9.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | β |
| Efficiency | 68.5% | 31.5% | - | β |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | β |
| Log Adjusted | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | β |
| Points Off/Def | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | β |
Actual: Sacramento Kings +8 (105-97). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 41 | 6-9 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 12-16 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 26 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 33 | 6-19 | 2-10 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 29 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 9-14 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 18 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 28 | 5-12 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 21 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 20 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - |
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nemanja Bjelica * | 36 | 5-7 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| De'Aaron Fox * | 36 | 6-15 | 1-4 | 3-8 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Bogdan BogdanoviΔ * | 35 | 8-16 | 6-13 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 23 | - | - | |
| Harrison Barnes * | 27 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Harry Giles III * | 13 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Buddy Hield | 35 | 7-16 | 5-13 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Kent Bazemore | 23 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Cory Joseph | 19 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Yogi Ferrell | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Anthony Tolliver | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter