Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 61.4% | 38.6% | -2.6 | ✓ (5.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -8 (101-109). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown * | 40 | 10-16 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 18 | - | |
| Gordon Hayward * | 37 | 10-14 | 1-2 | 8-10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 26 | - | |
| Kemba Walker * | 37 | 5-19 | 3-13 | 3-5 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 10 | - | |
| Marcus Smart * | 36 | 3-13 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | - | |
| Daniel Theis * | 29 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 18 | - | |
| Grant Williams | 23 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | - | |
| Semi Ojeleye | 20 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - | |
| Brad Wanamaker | 13 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 38 | 4-12 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler III * | 36 | 5-14 | 0-4 | 10-12 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 17 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 18 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 28 | 3-13 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 11 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 30 | 6-14 | 1-5 | 10-11 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 17 | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 22 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 | - | |
| Dion Waiters | 18 | 4-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | - | |
| James Johnson | 11 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Chris Silva | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - |
* = starter