Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.2% | 70.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.0% | 77.0% | +6.7 | ✓ (14.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +21 (113-92). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Gordon * | 33 | 6-15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Nikola Vučević * | 32 | 5-15 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Evan Fournier * | 30 | 3-13 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Markelle Fultz * | 29 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Khem Birch * | 26 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Terrence Ross | 28 | 4-14 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Michael Carter-Williams | 21 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Wes Iwundu | 15 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Mo Bamba | 12 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | - | - | |
| Vic Law | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Amile Jefferson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| BJ Johnson | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Melvin Frazier Jr. | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 33 | 7-11 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 10-16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 30 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler III * | 30 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 20 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 25 | 5-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 24 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 22 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| James Johnson | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | - | |
| Dion Waiters | 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter