Model Predictions
| Model | Washington Wizards | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.0% | 79.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 24.5% | 75.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.2% | 82.8% | +8.7 | ✓ (3.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 38.7% | 61.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 19.7% | 80.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.5% | 75.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.5% | 75.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.9% | 72.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +5 (134-129). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Beal * | 38 | 16-24 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 38 | - | - | |
| Ian Mahinmi * | 34 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Thomas * | 24 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Isaac Bonga * | 19 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Gary Payton II * | 14 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jordan McRae | 34 | 5-15 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Davis Bertans | 31 | 8-18 | 4-12 | 4-5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 24 | - | - | |
| Ish Smith | 28 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Troy Brown Jr. | 20 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Johnathan Williams | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 16-18 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 24 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 25 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 15 | 4-7 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 33 | 8-14 | 7-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 29 | 7-12 | 1-4 | 7-7 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 28 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| James Johnson | 28 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 21 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - |
* = starter