Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento Kings | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.6% | 73.4% | +5.6 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 25.5% | 74.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +5 (118-113). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buddy Hield * | 42 | 7-19 | 5-17 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | - | - | |
| Marvin Bagley III * | 38 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Nemanja Bjelica * | 37 | 8-13 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| De'Aaron Fox * | 37 | 7-22 | 0-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Harrison Barnes * | 32 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 34 | 5-15 | 3-11 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Cory Joseph | 18 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 13 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Yogi Ferrell | 10 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Justin James | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Nunn * | 43 | 7-17 | 3-9 | 8-8 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 39 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 37 | 4-11 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 27 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 20 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 31 | 7-16 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| James Johnson | 29 | 9-11 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 18 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 17 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | - | - |
* = starter