Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.8% | 46.2% | -0.8 | ✗ (5.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.4% | 45.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 67.1% | 32.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 62.5% | 37.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 62.5% | 37.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +5 (107-102). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 8-13 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 36 | 8-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 34 | 4-11 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 5-14 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 28 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 23 | 7-13 | 2-5 | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| James Johnson | 14 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMar DeRozan * | 37 | 7-16 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| LaMarcus Aldridge * | 35 | 8-15 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 | - | - | |
| Dejounte Murray * | 22 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Trey Lyles * | 20 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Bryn Forbes * | 16 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Patty Mills | 29 | 5-11 | 4-10 | 4-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Derrick White | 25 | 5-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Marco Belinelli | 20 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Lonnie Walker IV | 19 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jakob Poeltl | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter