Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Oklahoma City Thunder | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 41.3% | 58.7% | +1.9 | ✗ (8.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Oklahoma City Thunder -7 (108-115). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 35 | 5-12 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 7-7 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 7-10 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 30 | 9-17 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 14 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 29 | 4-13 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 24 | 5-10 | 1-5 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| James Johnson | 20 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 17 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - |
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 37 | 5-13 | 2-6 | 6-6 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Chris Paul * | 34 | 6-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Danilo Gallinari * | 33 | 7-15 | 7-12 | 6-7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Nerlens Noel * | 21 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | - | - | |
| Terrance Ferguson * | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Dennis Schroder | 37 | 6-16 | 3-11 | 3-3 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Mike Muscala | 26 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Hamidou Diallo | 23 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Darius Bazley | 14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Deonte Burton | 4 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter