Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.5% | 31.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.6% | 69.4% | +4.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 31.5% | 68.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 31.5% | 68.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +6 (106-100). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMar DeRozan * | 35 | 12-14 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 30 | - | - | |
| LaMarcus Aldridge * | 33 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Trey Lyles * | 27 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Dejounte Murray * | 25 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Bryn Forbes * | 25 | 4-13 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Patty Mills | 23 | 8-15 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Derrick White | 22 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Rudy Gay | 19 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jakob Poeltl | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - | - | |
| Lonnie Walker IV | 8 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Marco Belinelli | 4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 39 | 4-10 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 6-15 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 3-7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 31 | 13-18 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 33 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 27 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 24 | 6-13 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 24 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| James Johnson | 13 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter