Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.8% | 33.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.3% | 54.7% | +1.0 | ✗ (2.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -1 (106-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Harris * | 35 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jerami Grant * | 33 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 8-8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jokic * | 31 | 12-20 | 4-6 | 5-8 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 33 | - | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 31 | 7-18 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Torrey Craig * | 17 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Malik Beasley | 26 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Monte Morris | 20 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Mason Plumlee | 16 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 14 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Juancho Hernangomez | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 37 | 11-24 | 1-7 | 4-6 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright * | 31 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 31 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 30 | 5-11 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 27 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | - | - | |
| Seth Curry | 24 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 23 | 4-9 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Justin Jackson | 20 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jalen Brunson | 14 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter