Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.3% | 47.7% | -0.5 | ✓ (13.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers -14 (108-122). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meyers Leonard * | 29 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 29 | 5-12 | 4-11 | 3-4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 28 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 23 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 29 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 6-7 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 27 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 25 | 7-16 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Justise Winslow | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis * | 37 | 10-13 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 28 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jeremy Lamb * | 27 | 5-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Aaron Holiday * | 27 | 5-14 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| T.J. Warren * | 23 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday | 24 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 21 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Edmond Sumner | 19 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| JaKarr Sampson | 5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Alize Johnson | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Goga Bitadze | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter