Model Predictions
| Model | Toronto Raptors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.0% | 61.0% | +2.5 | ✓ (5.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +8 (84-76). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 40 | 4-16 | 2-12 | 5-6 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Fred VanVleet * | 38 | 3-16 | 1-11 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| OG Anunoby * | 36 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Serge Ibaka * | 34 | 9-21 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | - | - | |
| Patrick McCaw * | 27 | 1-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | 29 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Terence Davis | 13 | 1-6 | 0-5 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Chris Boucher | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | - | |
| Stanley Johnson | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Nunn * | 38 | 3-14 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 21 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 18 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 33 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 28 | 4-13 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 22 | 5-13 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter