Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 80.8% | 19.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 60.2% | 39.8% | -2.3 | ✓ (5.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers -8 (116-124). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray * | 37 | 8-18 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 17 | - | |
| Gary Harris * | 36 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 15 | - | |
| Will Barton * | 32 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 18 | - | |
| Paul Millsap * | 27 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - | |
| Nikola Jokic * | 24 | 7-15 | 0-3 | 8-8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 14 | - | |
| Mason Plumlee | 23 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 22 | 11-12 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 19 | - | |
| Jerami Grant | 20 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - | |
| Monte Morris | 13 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis * | 38 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 27 | - | |
| T.J. Warren * | 37 | 8-15 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 14 | - | |
| Jeremy Lamb * | 36 | 9-13 | 5-5 | 7-7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 26 | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 35 | 7-13 | 1-5 | 6-8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 15 | - | |
| Aaron Holiday * | 21 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 26 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 14 | - | |
| Justin Holiday | 22 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 12 | 2-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -2 | - | |
| Goga Bitadze | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
* = starter