Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.2% | 45.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.1% | 60.9% | +2.4 | ✓ (4.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 64.2% | 35.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 62.1% | 37.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 62.1% | 37.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies +7 (118-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 43 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 38 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 12-14 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 28 | 8-16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 23 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 16 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 37 | 7-20 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 31 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 17 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaren Jackson Jr. * | 34 | 5-14 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Jae Crowder * | 33 | 4-13 | 1-9 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Ja Morant * | 32 | 9-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Jonas Valanciunas * | 24 | 8-9 | 1-1 | 4-8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21 | - | - | |
| Dillon Brooks * | 22 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| De'Anthony Melton | 25 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 9-11 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Brandon Clarke | 25 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Tyus Jones | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Kyle Anderson | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Solomon Hill | 10 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - |
* = starter