Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 37.5% | 62.5% | +2.8 | ✗ (6.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -4 (118-122). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 43 | 8-22 | 1-6 | 10-12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 18 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 37 | 5-14 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 36 | 3-10 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 15 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 38 | 4-14 | 3-6 | 8-8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 28 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 26 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 41 | 11-22 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Kristaps Porzingis * | 39 | 7-21 | 3-9 | 5-7 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 22 | - | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 36 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 27 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Luka Doncic * | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jalen Brunson | 34 | 7-16 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 29 | 7-9 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Seth Curry | 19 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| J.J. Barea | 13 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Justin Jackson | 12 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter