Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.0% | 80.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.4% | 75.6% | +6.2 | ✓ (12.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Boston Celtics +19 (112-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler III * | 37 | 12-18 | 6-10 | 7-10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 37 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 28 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 26 | 3-11 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 20 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Justise Winslow | 31 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 27 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 20 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown * | 34 | 10-20 | 5-9 | 6-8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 31 | - | - | |
| Jayson Tatum * | 33 | 6-19 | 2-12 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19 | - | - | |
| Kemba Walker * | 31 | 9-17 | 6-11 | 4-4 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | - | - | |
| Daniel Theis * | 26 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | - | - | |
| Grant Williams * | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Semi Ojeleye | 24 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Brad Wanamaker | 19 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Robert Williams III | 19 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Carsen Edwards | 17 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Javonte Green | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Enes Freedom | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Vincent Poirier | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter