Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.6% | 55.4% | +1.2 | ✗ (12.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 34.6% | 65.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.7% | 62.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors -11 (110-121). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 41 | 7-16 | 2-4 | 6-7 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 38 | 3-16 | 0-9 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 27 | 8-11 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 17 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 35 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | - | - | |
| Justise Winslow | 34 | 8-17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 17 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 16 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | - | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred VanVleet * | 43 | 5-16 | 3-9 | 6-7 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 40 | 2-18 | 0-11 | 8-8 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Pascal Siakam * | 38 | 5-14 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Marc Gasol * | 33 | 5-9 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| OG Anunoby * | 21 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Norman Powell | 34 | 8-14 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Serge Ibaka | 22 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Terence Davis | 14 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter