Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.0% | 59.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 43.1% | 56.9% | +1.5 | ✓ (15.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 29.9% | 70.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 8.6% | 91.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.4% | 77.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +17 (122-105). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burks * | 31 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Glenn Robinson III * | 29 | 0-10 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Eric Paschall * | 28 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 8-10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Willie Cauley-Stein * | 24 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Draymond Green * | 19 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Ky Bowman | 32 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jordan Poole | 28 | 5-10 | 5-6 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Marquese Chriss | 23 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 8-8 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Omari Spellman | 22 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Nunn * | 28 | 6-16 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 27 | 3-11 | 0-2 | 10-12 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 24 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 20 | 5-7 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 16 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 26 | 9-13 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 26 | 7-11 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Justise Winslow | 26 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 24 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - | - |
* = starter