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2019-11-23

Model Predictions

Model Miami Heat Chicago Bulls Spread Result
Elo 38.0% 62.0% -
Bradley-Terry 51.5% 48.5% -
Margin 53.2% 46.8% -0.7 (7.3 off)
Pythagorean 55.4% 44.6% -
Efficiency 72.0% 28.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 67.8% 32.2% -
Log Adjusted 67.7% 32.3% -
Points Off/Def 57.9% 42.1% -

Actual: Chicago Bulls -8 (108-116). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Miami Heat

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Jimmy Butler * 34 7-10 1-2 12-13 5 7 4 0 27 33 -
Bam Adebayo * 33 6-10 0-0 4-4 14 6 3 1 16 30 -
Duncan Robinson * 31 3-9 2-8 0-0 3 2 1 0 8 5 -
Kendrick Nunn * 25 8-14 3-8 2-3 3 2 0 0 21 12 -
Meyers Leonard * 18 4-6 1-2 0-0 5 1 0 0 9 9 -
Goran Dragic 28 5-11 3-5 3-4 2 7 1 0 16 15 -
Tyler Herro 27 3-11 2-8 1-2 3 6 1 0 9 8 -
Kelly Olynyk 23 3-6 2-4 2-2 4 1 0 1 10 10 -
Chris Silva 15 0-1 0-0 0-0 5 1 0 1 0 6 -
James Johnson 2 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -

Chicago Bulls

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Zach LaVine * 29 6-14 0-4 3-3 3 2 2 0 15 8 -
Wendell Carter Jr. * 25 3-3 0-0 0-0 6 1 1 0 6 11 -
Lauri Markkanen * 23 3-12 0-4 3-4 7 1 0 0 9 5 -
Shaquille Harrison * 23 3-8 0-2 4-4 2 4 2 1 10 11 -
Tomas Satoransky * 21 2-5 0-1 2-2 2 5 2 0 6 10 -
Thaddeus Young 24 5-15 1-4 1-2 8 3 1 0 12 9 -
Ryan Arcidiacono 24 4-7 2-5 0-0 2 0 0 0 10 5 -
Kris Dunn 22 3-6 2-2 0-0 3 5 3 0 8 13 -
Coby White 20 4-10 2-3 2-2 2 1 0 0 12 5 -
Daniel Gafford 14 3-3 0-0 0-2 3 0 0 2 6 8 -
Max Strus 4 2-3 0-1 1-1 1 0 0 0 5 3 -
Denzel Valentine 4 3-4 3-4 0-0 2 1 0 0 9 8 -

* = starter