Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.4% | 31.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.1% | 60.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.9% | 73.1% | +5.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 18.1% | 81.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.4% | 76.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.8% | 72.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +7 (117-110). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMarcus Aldridge * | 34 | 7-14 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| DeMar DeRozan * | 33 | 14-20 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 36 | - | - | |
| Bryn Forbes * | 31 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Dejounte Murray * | 25 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Trey Lyles * | 11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Patty Mills | 26 | 3-9 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Marco Belinelli | 19 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Jakob Poeltl | 19 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Rudy Gay | 17 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Derrick White | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| DeMarre Carroll | 8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Dončić * | 35 | 14-27 | 5-13 | 9-13 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 42 | - | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 35 | 8-10 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kristaps Porziņģis * | 31 | 6-14 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Seth Curry * | 26 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 25 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 28 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright | 24 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 14 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jalen Brunson | 13 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Justin Jackson | 4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter