Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.4% | 77.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 35.7% | 64.3% | +3.2 | ✗ (19.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.3% | 46.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 65.8% | 34.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.6% | 38.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.6% | 38.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns -16 (108-124). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 6-9 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 28 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 11-16 | 2-2 | 10-10 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 27 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 27 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 22 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 13 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 31 | 9-16 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 19 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 28 | 6-12 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 23 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 | - | |
| James Johnson | 14 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - | |
| Chris Silva | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker * | 35 | 6-13 | 2-4 | 8-8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 18 | - | |
| Dario Saric * | 29 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - | |
| Ricky Rubio * | 29 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 18 | - | |
| Aron Baynes * | 28 | 10-17 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 11 | - | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. * | 25 | 5-10 | 1-1 | 4-7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 12 | - | |
| Mikal Bridges | 20 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - | |
| Cameron Johnson | 19 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - | |
| Frank Kaminsky | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - | |
| Tyler Johnson | 16 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | - | |
| Jevon Carter | 14 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - | |
| Elie Okobo | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Cheick Diallo | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter