Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.9% | 80.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.2% | 65.8% | +3.6 | ✓ (16.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +20 (109-89). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Nunn * | 32 | 4-14 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Justise Winslow * | 30 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 29 | 3-12 | 0-3 | 10-12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 24 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 17 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 25 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 23 | 4-8 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 16 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 15 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 11 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| James Johnson | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barton * | 32 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 3-5 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 32 | 9-15 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jokic * | 22 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Gary Harris * | 17 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Paul Millsap * | 16 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Jerami Grant | 29 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Mason Plumlee | 23 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Monte Morris | 22 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Torrey Craig | 19 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Malik Beasley | 17 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Juancho Hernangomez | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter