Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.6% | 68.4% | +4.3 | ✓ (24.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +29 (129-100). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden * | 26 | 6-14 | 3-9 | 14-14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 29 | - | - | |
| Russell Westbrook * | 26 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 3-6 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 24 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Eric Gordon * | 22 | 2-10 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Clint Capela * | 22 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Austin Rivers | 24 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Chris Clemons | 21 | 5-10 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Ben McLemore | 20 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Danuel House Jr. | 19 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Thabo Sefolosha | 18 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Ryan Anderson | 9 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Tyson Chandler | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 35 | 8-12 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 27 | 9-11 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 27 | 7-15 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 25 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 19 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 34 | 3-10 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 27 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| James Johnson | 22 | 7-12 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - |
* = starter