Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.5% | 61.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.5% | 46.5% | -0.8 | ✓ (8.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 63.8% | 36.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 84.5% | 15.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.7% | 21.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.7% | 21.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 68.0% | 32.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks -9 (97-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 2-10 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 5 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 3-7 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 33 | 10-15 | 4-6 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 26 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 25 | 6-10 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 30 | 7-16 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 22 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 19 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 11 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Collins * | 33 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | - | - | |
| Cameron Reddish * | 28 | 2-11 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| De'Andre Hunter * | 28 | 1-9 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kevin Huerter * | 25 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Alex Len * | 14 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| DeAndre' Bembry | 28 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 2-6 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jabari Parker | 25 | 8-13 | 2-6 | 5-8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Tyrone Wallace | 19 | 6-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Vince Carter | 16 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Damian Jones | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Bruno Fernando | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - |
* = starter