Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.0% | 80.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 38.3% | 61.7% | +2.6 | ✗ (5.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 59.8% | 40.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 55.1% | 44.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.1% | 44.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -3 (106-109). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristaps Porzingis * | 32 | 4-14 | 1-8 | 1-1 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 | - | |
| Luka Doncic * | 32 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 5-8 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - | |
| Seth Curry * | 25 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 23 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 30 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 14 | - | |
| Delon Wright | 24 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 14 | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 23 | 5-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 11 | - | |
| Justin Jackson | 19 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - | |
| Jalen Brunson | 15 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 3-7 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barton * | 36 | 8-16 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 | - | |
| Gary Harris * | 33 | 6-15 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 11 | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 33 | 7-13 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 10 | - | |
| Nikola Jokic * | 32 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 25 | - | |
| Paul Millsap * | 31 | 9-17 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 14 | - | |
| Jerami Grant | 16 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Monte Morris | 14 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| Mason Plumlee | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | - | |
| Malik Beasley | 14 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | - | |
| Torrey Craig | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter