Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Hawks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.9% | 69.1% | +4.4 | ✓ (10.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 9.5% | 90.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.3% | 84.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.3% | 84.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.4% | 78.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +15 (112-97). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Collins * | 35 | 10-17 | 5-8 | 5-6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 30 | - | - | |
| De'Andre Hunter * | 27 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Cameron Reddish * | 26 | 2-10 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Alex Len * | 18 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - | - | |
| Trae Young * | 11 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| DeAndre' Bembry | 27 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jabari Parker | 22 | 5-11 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Kevin Huerter | 19 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Vince Carter | 18 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Tyrone Wallace | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Bruno Fernando | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Damian Jones | 7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 9-10 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 30 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 10-15 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Justise Winslow * | 30 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 29 | 7-18 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 24 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 29 | 7-12 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 29 | 7-9 | 3-4 | 12-16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 29 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 18 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter