Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis Grizzlies | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.5% | 55.5% | +1.2 | ✓ (17.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 29.8% | 70.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 31.9% | 68.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 31.9% | 68.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +19 (120-101). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jae Crowder * | 30 | 3-11 | 2-9 | 5-6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. * | 29 | 5-12 | 0-6 | 7-9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | - | - | |
| Ja Morant * | 25 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Dillon Brooks * | 18 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jonas Valanciunas * | 16 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Tyus Jones | 24 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Marko Guduric | 24 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Brandon Clarke | 23 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Grayson Allen | 20 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Kyle Anderson | 20 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Bruno Caboclo | 4 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| De'Anthony Melton | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justise Winslow * | 36 | 10-21 | 1-2 | 6-9 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 27 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 33 | 6-14 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 26 | 10-18 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 24 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 18 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 25 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 9-10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 19 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 22 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 22 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 11 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Daryl Macon | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter