Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Chicago Bulls | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.0% | 29.0% | -3.7 | ✓ (3.3 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.2% | 37.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 68.7% | 31.3% | -4.3 | ✓ (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.6% | 30.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.6% | 30.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Chicago Bulls -7 (93-100). Ratings: 2017-18 season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic * | 33 | 7-11 | 4-7 | 6-7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 15 | - |
| Dion Waiters * | 26 | 2-10 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Josh Richardson * | 24 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Hassan Whiteside * | 21 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Justise Winslow * | 19 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Tyler Johnson | 30 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Wayne Ellington | 29 | 5-8 | 5-8 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 15 | - |
| James Johnson | 28 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 | - |
| Kelly Olynyk | 26 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 7 | - |
Chicago Bulls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Valentine * | 39 | 5-12 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 22 | - |
| Justin Holiday * | 36 | 5-14 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | - |
| Lauri Markkanen * | 31 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Robin Lopez * | 27 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Kris Dunn * | 23 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Jerian Grant | 30 | 8-16 | 3-4 | 5-6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 10 | - |
| Bobby Portis | 23 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Antonio Blakeney | 14 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Paul Zipser | 13 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
* = starter