Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.3% | 51.7% | +0.7 | ✓ (3.3 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.5% | 52.5% | +0.6 | ✓ (3.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +4 (112-108). Ratings: 2017-18 season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Oladipo * | 36 | 10-23 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 17 | - |
| Thaddeus Young * | 31 | 7-16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 31 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Domantas Sabonis * | 30 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 22 | - |
| Bojan Bogdanović * | 20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Cory Joseph | 27 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Lance Stephenson | 18 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -3 | - |
| T.J. Leaf | 16 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Al Jefferson | 14 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Damien Wilkins | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Richardson * | 37 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Goran Dragic * | 32 | 9-13 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 16 | - |
| Dion Waiters * | 32 | 8-16 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | - |
| James Johnson * | 29 | 5-10 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 20 | - |
| Jordan Mickey * | 13 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Kelly Olynyk | 27 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 17 | - |
| Tyler Johnson | 26 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Justise Winslow | 25 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Wayne Ellington | 15 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | - |
* = starter