Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.4% | 70.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.1% | 67.9% | +4.1 | ✓ (7.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +12 (109-97). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 37 | 8-20 | 2-5 | 6-8 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 17 | - |
| Matthew Dellavedova * | 35 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Tony Snell * | 25 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| John Henson * | 22 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Thon Maker * | 18 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Jabari Parker | 32 | 7-18 | 0-4 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 9 | - |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 30 | 1-10 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Greg Monroe | 17 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Michael Beasley | 10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Rashad Vaughn | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Waiters * | 33 | 12-18 | 5-7 | 4-8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 19 | - |
| Goran Dragic * | 33 | 8-13 | 3-5 | 6-7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 17 | - |
| Hassan Whiteside * | 30 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 25 | - |
| Rodney McGruder * | 18 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Luke Babbitt * | 18 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Wayne Ellington | 35 | 6-12 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 | - |
| James Johnson | 34 | 3-12 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Okaro White | 18 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Willie Reed | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
* = starter