Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.2% | 45.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 40.7% | 59.3% | +2.1 | ✓ (2.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies +5 (107-102). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 41 | 14-23 | 3-5 | 6-7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 22 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 35 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 35 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 25 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 24 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 24 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 23 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Toney Douglas * | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Justin Hamilton * | 12 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Gasol * | 44 | 8-16 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 22 | - |
| Zach Randolph * | 42 | 12-15 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 22 | - |
| Mike Conley * | 41 | 10-18 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 16 | - |
| Courtney Lee * | 36 | 7-11 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 8 | - |
| James Johnson * | 24 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Tony Allen * | 24 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Nick Calathes * | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Kosta Koufos * | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Ed Davis | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
* = starter