Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.4% | 62.6% | +2.8 | ✓ (8.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +11 (94-83). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jennings * | 35 | 10-16 | 4-9 | 6-6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 18 | - |
| Luc Mbah a Moute * | 31 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Larry Sanders * | 30 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Monta Ellis * | 27 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy * | 26 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - |
| JJ Redick * | 25 | 2-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova * | 21 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Marquis Daniels * | 19 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Gustavo Ayon * | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - |
| John Henson * | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Ish Smith | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 30 | 11-16 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 26 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 28 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 27 | 3-11 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 24 | 4-13 | 2-8 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 23 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 22 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 21 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 20 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 19 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | - |
| James Jones * | 17 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Jarvis Varnado | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter