Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 31.1% | 68.9% | +4.4 | ✗ (6.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs -2 (86-88). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norris Cole * | 42 | 4-12 | 0-2 | 5-7 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 36 | 9-15 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 20 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 30 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 30 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 27 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 24 | 4-8 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 20 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| James Jones * | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard * | 37 | 8-13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 36 | 4-14 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 35 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 19 | - |
| Danny Green * | 31 | 4-14 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 28 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 | - |
| Boris Diaw * | 18 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Gary Neal * | 18 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Stephen Jackson * | 14 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Nando De Colo * | 11 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Matt Bonner | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter