Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Hawks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.8% | 70.2% | +4.7 | ✓ (12.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +17 (98-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Horford * | 32 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Anthony Tolliver * | 25 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Jeff Teague * | 24 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 23 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 23 | 7-16 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 6 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Kyle Korver * | 19 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - |
| John Jenkins * | 18 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -1 | - |
| Devin Harris * | 18 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Ivan Johnson * | 16 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Mike Scott | 9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Shelvin Mack | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 30 | 9-18 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 19 | - |
| LeBron James * | 30 | 3-11 | 0-2 | 9-12 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 26 | 5-8 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 25 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 4-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 24 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 23 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 21 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 18 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Mike Miller | 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| James Jones | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter