Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.5% | 34.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.1% | 56.9% | +1.5 | ✗ (9.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -8 (107-115). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Pierce * | 40 | 8-16 | 3-5 | 8-10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 20 | - |
| Rajon Rondo * | 40 | 6-11 | 1-1 | 5-8 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 23 | - |
| Brandon Bass * | 38 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 34 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Kevin Garnett * | 33 | 11-14 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 19 | - |
| Avery Bradley * | 25 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Greg Stiemsma * | 19 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Sasha Pavlovic * | 7 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 40 | 11-23 | 1-3 | 13-14 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 27 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 9-21 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 8 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 38 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 30 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 15 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 21 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 20 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Ronny Turiaf * | 17 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| James Jones * | 13 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Norris Cole | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter