Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 38.6% | 61.4% | +2.5 | ✗ (14.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors -12 (101-113). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 38 | 11-18 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 19 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 36 | 12-19 | 1-2 | 5-7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 27 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 36 | 11-18 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 25 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 30 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 27 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 24 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 17 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Ronny Turiaf * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Terrel Harris * | 12 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon * | 41 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 21 | - |
| DeMar DeRozan * | 39 | 9-17 | 0-2 | 10-10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 13 | - |
| Andrea Bargnani * | 38 | 10-17 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 11 | - |
| Amir Johnson * | 30 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 17 | - |
| Gary Forbes * | 19 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Linas Kleiza * | 16 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Ed Davis * | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| James Johnson * | 14 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Ben Uzoh * | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Aaron Gray * | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Alan Anderson | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
* = starter