Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.5% | 64.5% | +3.3 | ✓ (17.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +21 (106-85). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 34 | 9-19 | 0-1 | 7-7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 14 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 30 | 1-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | - |
| Jason Kidd * | 29 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 28 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 26 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Lamar Odom * | 23 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 19 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi * | 19 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois * | 14 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Delonte West | 8 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Brian Cardinal | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jianlian Yi | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 36 | 8-16 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 16 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 31 | 8-17 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 12 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 31 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 29 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 10 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 28 | 4-11 | 2-9 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 23 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 22 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Ronny Turiaf * | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| James Jones | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Dexter Pittman | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
* = starter