Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 40.1% | 59.9% | +2.2 | ✓ (3.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +6 (125-119). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 44 | 8-18 | 1-5 | 8-8 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 22 | - |
| Luis Scola * | 39 | 13-23 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 11 | - |
| Chase Budinger * | 36 | 6-15 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | - |
| Kevin Martin * | 35 | 8-19 | 2-6 | 11-12 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 19 | - |
| Chuck Hayes * | 32 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Courtney Lee * | 19 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Patrick Patterson * | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Jordan Hill * | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Goran Dragic * | 8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 40 | 13-21 | 0-1 | 7-9 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 27 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 38 | 11-21 | 0-0 | 9-10 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 24 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 37 | 10-25 | 1-5 | 9-10 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 20 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 34 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 23 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| James Jones * | 23 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Eddie House * | 5 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter