Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.6% | 89.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 35.6% | 64.4% | +3.3 | ✗ (9.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -6 (91-97). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker * | 39 | 14-22 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 17 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 33 | 7-16 | 3-5 | 8-8 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 18 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 31 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 20 | - |
| Antonio McDyess * | 29 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - |
| Gary Neal * | 28 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | - |
| George Hill * | 27 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Richard Jefferson * | 18 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 18 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| DeJuan Blair * | 13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| James Anderson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 37 | 10-16 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 18 | - |
| Jason Kidd * | 36 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 34 | 5-14 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois * | 28 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -2 | - |
| J.J. Barea * | 25 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 22 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 13 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 13 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Brian Cardinal * | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Brendan Haywood | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter