Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 51.8% | 48.2% | -0.4 | ✓ (20.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks -21 (85-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bosh * | 32 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 7-11 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 22 | - |
| LeBron James * | 30 | 16-21 | 5-7 | 6-7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 23 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 26 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 24 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 23 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | - |
| James Jones * | 21 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire * | 16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 16 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Eddie House | 7 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Horford * | 28 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 27 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | - |
| Joe Johnson * | 27 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Marvin Williams * | 26 | 7-17 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 2 | - |
| Kirk Hinrich * | 24 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Jamal Crawford * | 23 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Zaza Pachulia * | 23 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Damien Wilkins * | 21 | 6-8 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Jeff Teague * | 17 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Jason Collins * | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Hilton Armstrong | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
* = starter