Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.5% | 83.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.3% | 67.7% | +4.1 | ✓ (25.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +30 (110-80). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker * | 32 | 7-16 | 2-2 | 2-5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 30 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 30 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 4-6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 13 | - |
| George Hill * | 29 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Richard Jefferson * | 28 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Antonio McDyess * | 28 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Gary Neal * | 19 | 2-13 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -4 | - |
| DeJuan Blair * | 16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Steve Novak | 7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| James Anderson | 5 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Tiago Splitter | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 41 | 8-19 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 16 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 11-23 | 0-1 | 7-7 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 20 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 35 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 10-10 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 27 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 30 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire * | 20 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 20 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| James Jones | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter