Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.1% | 67.9% | +4.1 | ✓ (25.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +30 (125-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 36 | 11-19 | 1-3 | 3-7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 19 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 35 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 33 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 28 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 26 | 8-18 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0 | - |
| Eddie House * | 20 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 19 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas | 10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| James Jones | 7 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Jefferson * | 27 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - |
| DeJuan Blair * | 27 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 12 | - |
| George Hill * | 27 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 26 | 7-15 | 3-8 | 3-4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Gary Neal * | 26 | 7-8 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 14 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 26 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 24 | 6-7 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 23 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Othyus Jeffers | 8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Steve Novak | 8 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
* = starter