Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.0% | 58.0% | +1.8 | ✗ (9.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors -8 (95-103). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 10-18 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 16 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 38 | 7-16 | 0-1 | 11-12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 16 | - |
| LeBron James * | 37 | 8-18 | 0-2 | 7-10 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 21 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 28 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 27 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 | - |
| Eddie House * | 25 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Carlos Arroyo * | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 12 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - |
| James Jones | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMar DeRozan * | 41 | 9-20 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 12 | - |
| Andrea Bargnani * | 39 | 15-26 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 13 | - |
| Jose Calderon * | 34 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | - |
| Leandro Barbosa * | 26 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Amir Johnson * | 25 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 15 | - |
| Sonny Weems * | 23 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Ed Davis * | 22 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 16 | - |
| Jerryd Bayless * | 14 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Alexis Ajinca * | 10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
* = starter