Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 58.5% | 41.5% | -1.9 | ✓ (12.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.3% | 45.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons -14 (92-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bosh * | 36 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 9-10 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 36 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 24 | - |
| LeBron James * | 34 | 7-17 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 29 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 27 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 3 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 23 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 21 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Eddie House * | 17 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| James Jones | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tayshaun Prince * | 30 | 5-11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Tracy McGrady * | 28 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Greg Monroe * | 27 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Ben Gordon * | 27 | 6-13 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 14 | - |
| Rodney Stuckey * | 24 | 4-12 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Austin Daye * | 23 | 6-13 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Charlie Villanueva * | 20 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Ben Wallace * | 19 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Will Bynum * | 19 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Chris Wilcox * | 14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Jason Maxiell | 5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
* = starter