Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.6% | 74.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.5% | 67.5% | +4.0 | ✓ (1.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +5 (117-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Granger * | 37 | 8-16 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 8 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 36 | 5-15 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Roy Hibbert * | 30 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 18 | - |
| Josh McRoberts * | 24 | 6-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Tyler Hansbrough * | 23 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Paul George * | 22 | 3-10 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 20 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Jeff Foster * | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy * | 15 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| AJ Price * | 11 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 41 | 15-23 | 2-5 | 9-13 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 39 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 40 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 10 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 40 | 7-17 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 29 | 6-12 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 10 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 25 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 22 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas * | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Eddie House * | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| James Jones | 10 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | - |
* = starter